Psephologise This!

Whew! The great Indian election is finally over. So stand up and take a bow for a job well done, India! The large turnout (especially in rural areas) and the outcome are ample proof that the world's largest democracy is not only very much alive, but vigorously kicking too.

I've been following the election results since last night and I have to say the NDA's defeat is quite comprehensive and not a little shocking (so much for all the exit polls and psephologists and politics pundits and gurus and maharishis and sadhus and the such!) I think the most surprising thing was how the BJP lost ground in what I thought were its strongholds - AP, TN, and even Gujarat and Maharashtra.

Going by those results, as well as the results in Karnataka, it appears to me that the flogged-to-death phrase "anti-incumbency" is an important factor in Indian elections, which, I would think, is an unhealthy sign - it implies that the whichever party is elected rarely satisfies the electorate during its reign and is thus replaced the next time elections come around.

Another thing I noticed this time is that a number of younger, well-educated contestants (some of them the children of politicians) seem to have done well. Rahul Gandhi, Sachin Pilot, Omar Abdullah, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Milind Deora and Akhilesh Yadav being the more prominent ones. This seems to be a general reversal of the trend of an increasingly aging parliament.

Most of the "stars" outside politics seem to have done well too, from Navjyot Singh Sidhu (he will be a sight to watch in parliament!) to Govinda. And at the same time, I can't believe leaders like Yashwant Sinha and Murli Manohar Joshi were defeated. This election must have quite a sobering effect on the party.

Here's an article that I think does well in summarising the result. The authors have the benefit of being objective observers and are thus able to bring a sense of perspective to their analysis.

But far and away the biggest thing about these elections is the fact that they were completely, 100% electronic. And this in a so-called Third World country with a population of a billion people. Compare this with the mighty USA. It has only a quarter of the population and is the most powerful and technologically advanced country in the world. But despite all the resources at its disposal and despite being still haunted by the "chad" fiasco of the 2000 presidential election, this November's election will see the return of the same old paper ballots and (hopefully) the same old fiascos. After all, what would we do for entertainment otherwise?